Global Monetary Policy and Bond Market Tensions Escalate Ahead of FOMC

매크로/금리 | Tue Jul 28 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 6 sources

Singapore delivered a surprise tightening amid surging oil prices while US Treasury and inflation-linked bond markets moved ahead of the July FOMC meeting.

Analysis

[Federal Reserve] expected to hold rates at July 29 FOMC meeting ^[6]

• 64% probability of maintaining current 3.5%-3.75% target range
• 36% probability of hiking to 3.75%-4%
• Wait-and-see stance despite persistent high inflation due to economic shock concerns

[Monetary Authority of Singapore] executed unexpected back-to-back monetary tightening ^[1]

• Slightly raised the appreciation pace of the SGD NEER policy band
• Band width and center unchanged
• adjustment smaller than in April
• Most economists in Reuters survey had expected a hold

[Singapore Inflation and Economy] faced expanding upward pressure on import prices from oil ^[1]

• June core CPI at 1.6%
• headline at 1.9%
• OCBC forecasts headline and core overshooting to 2.5% and 2.3% respectively
• Q2 GDP grew 5.7%
• with AI demand driving electronics exports

[US Treasuries] strengthened on buying interest ahead of FOMC ^[4]

• Oil prices declined as the US halted airstrikes on Iran
• Buying interest concentrated on short-term Treasury auctions
• Fed meeting and Treasury supply this week are key variables

[Kevin Warsh (Fed Chair)] sparked communication style debate through repeated use of key phrases ^[2]

• Mentioned 'family fight' 13 times
• 'first principles' 11 times
• 'inflation is a choice' 6 times
• Minimizes remarks compared to predecessors
• Interpreted as intent to stimulate internal FOMC debate

[Lacy Hunt / Azimut] reshaped global long-term bond investment landscape ^[3][5]

• Lacy Hunt unwound 44-year bullish bet on long-term US Treasuries
• Azimut fund manager identified Japanese government bonds as top opportunity
• JGBs highlighted as attractive within global bonds despite high-risk perception

Sources

• [1] Singapore tightens monetary policy in surprise move as rising oil prices rekindle inflation risk - CNBC Markets
• [2] Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases. How Fed watchers interpret them - CNBC Markets
• [3] For 44 years, this investor held aces in the long-bond game. He just folded. - MarketWatch Top Stories
• [4] Treasuries Rise as Elevated Yields Attract Buyers Before Fed - Bloomberg Markets
• [5] Azimut Fund Manager Bets on Japanese Bonds as Yields Surge - Bloomberg Markets
• [6] Federal Reserve: 1 Thing All Investors Need to Know Before July 29 - The Motley Fool