Middle East Geopolitical Risks Push Brent Above $100, Rattling Commodity and Gold Markets

에너지/원자재 | Fri Jul 24 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 15 sources

Oil prices surged on Red Sea tanker attacks and Iran escalation fears, driving broad volatility across commodities including gold, dollar, and grains.

Analysis

[Brent Crude] surged past $100 per barrel ^[14][1]

• First time above $100 since May 26
• Closed at $100.69
• up about 7%
• WTI rose about 6% to close at $92.19
• Up more than 30% this month

[Houthi·Iran] attacked Saudi tankers in Red Sea and escalated Middle East conflict ^[13][14]

• Drone and missile attacks on Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla
• First attack since Houthi declared naval blockade on Saudi Arabia
• US military conducted 12 consecutive days of strikes on Iran
• Trump warned Iran would be held responsible for Houthi attacks

[Global Crude Oil Market] saw surging foreign demand for US crude and shrinking supply buffers ^[3][8][10]

• Asian and European buyers ramping up US crude purchases
• Middle East production still down 7-8MM Bbl/d
• Global onshore inventories near seasonal lows
• US SPR depletion deepening

[RBC Capital Markets] outlined scenario for Brent to rise above $120 ^[14]

• Potential to exceed 2022 high of $128
• Worst case could top 2008 peak of $146
• Kyiv attacked more than 150 tankers in Black Sea and Sea of Azov
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted crude loadings

[Gold·Dollar] saw gold fall and dollar rise on expanded Fed tightening bets ^[2][5][11]

• Energy price surge stoked inflation concerns
• Gold sold off on Fed rate hike expectations
• Dollar rose on safe-haven demand and higher-for-longer rate outlook
• John Paulson called gold in early stage of long-term bull market

[ADNOC] approved $6.2 billion investment in Umm Shaif gas field ^[15]

• Joint development with TotalEnergies
• Eni
• and CNPC
• Producing over 600 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day
• Equivalent to about 10% of UAE daily gas consumption
• Production to start in 2030
• targeting 47 million tons of LNG by 2035

[Southwest Airlines] conducted first jet fuel shipment from Texas to LA by sea ^[12]

• Departed Houston
• transited Panama Canal
• arrived in LA on May 28
• About 12.6 million gallons
• equivalent to one week of West Coast supply
• Granted Jones Act waiver
• Q2 fuel costs increased by $900 million year-over-year

[US Wheat·Grains] surged to three-year highs across North American grain markets ^[4][6][7]

• North Dakota heatwave threatens wheat harvest yields
• Wheat prices at three-year highs
• Soybeans opened strong Wednesday
• Corn also began Wednesday rally

[Enbridge·Energy Transfer] highlighted as midstream dividend beneficiaries of data center demand ^[9]

• Enbridge has paid dividends for over 70 consecutive years
• 5% yield
• Energy Transfer dividend yield at 6.6%
• Enbridge secured Meta solar and data center contracts
• Energy Transfer to supply gas to Oracle data centers

Sources

• [1] Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for July 24 - Bloomberg Markets
• [2] Gold Holds Decline as Surging Energy Costs Raise Rate-Hike Bets - Bloomberg Markets
• [3] Overseas Buyers In Hot Pursuit of US Crude as Wars Escalate - Bloomberg Markets
• [4] Heat Worries US Wheat Farmers Just as Crop Prices Surge - Bloomberg Markets
• [5] Dollar Rises as Intensifying Iran War Lifts Rate Hike Bets - Bloomberg Markets
• [6] Soybeans Kicking Off Midweek Trade with Early Strength - Yahoo Finance
• [7] Corn Rallying to Start Wednesday Trade - Yahoo Finance
• [8] Overseas demand rises for U.S. crude as war-induced volatility sends buyers scrambling - Seeking Alpha Market News
• [9] Better Stock for Passive Income: Enbridge with Its 70+ Years of Payouts or Energy Transfer with Its 6.6% Yield? - The Motley Fool
• [10] Brent crude tops $100 a barrel. How the next stop could be $120 - CNBC Investing
• [11] John Paulson says we are in the early stages of a long-term bull market for gold - CNBC Investing
• [12] Southwest Airlines put Texas jet fuel on a boat to LA for the first time amid supply worries - CNBC Energy
• [13] Trump says U.S. will hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks after oil tankers targeted in Red Sea - CNBC Energy
• [14] Brent crude crosses $100 after tankers reportedly struck off Saudi Arabia - CNBC Energy
• [15] Abu Dhabi approves $6.2 billion gas project to boost UAE supply - CNBC Energy