June Inflation Slows Unexpectedly, Fed Rate Hike Bets Retreat

매크로/금리 | Thu Jul 16 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 8 sources

Simultaneous declines in CPI and PPI boosted Treasuries and emerging market currencies, while gold remained on the sidelines.

Analysis

[U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)] reported June PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% ^[2]

• Dow Jones forecast was flat
• Gasoline plunged 12%
• energy fell 6.4%
• Core PPI rose 0.2%
• below expectations
• May figure revised down from 1.1% to 0.6%

[U.S. CPI] June consumer prices fell 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020 ^[2][8]

• Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%
• Core CPI annual rate fell to 2.6%
• Led by declining energy prices
• Still above the Fed's 2% target

[U.S. Treasury Market] rallied for a second consecutive day on slowing inflation ^[6][2]

• CPI and PPI both came in below expectations consecutively
• Optimism strengthened that inflation has peaked
• Expectations grew that Fed rate hikes may be unnecessary
• CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to 50%

[Emerging Market Currencies] strengthened on a weaker dollar ^[5][4]

• Weak PPI data weakened the dollar
• Retreat in Fed hike bets
• Accompanied by Asian tech stock rally
• Broader risk-on sentiment

[Gold Market] traded sideways between Middle East risks and slowing inflation ^[3][7]

• Weak inflation data eased rate hike concerns
• Escalating attacks in the Middle East stimulated safe-haven demand
• Uncertainty over Fed rate path highlighted

[Federal Reserve] warned of slowing consumer spending in the Beige Book ^[1]

• Overall services demand slowed despite World Cup boost
• Rising oil prices pressured consumer spending
• Canadian tourists declined amid tariff policy fallout
• Consumers seeking lower-priced alternatives

Sources

• [1] World Cup gave bars and restaurants a needed boost as consumers flash warning signs, Fed says - CNBC Markets
• [2] Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June on big drop in gasoline - CNBC Markets
• [3] Gold Steadies as Soft Inflation, War Risk Cloud Fed Rate Outlook - Bloomberg Markets
• [4] Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Outweighs Chip Rout: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg Markets
• [5] Emerging Currencies Gain as Traders Cut Back Fed Bets on US PPI - Bloomberg Markets
• [6] US Bonds Extend Rally as Soft Inflation Data Dims Fed Hike Bets - Bloomberg Markets
• [7] Gold Wavers as Traders Weigh Fed Rate Path After Tame Inflation - Bloomberg Markets
• [8] Inflation cools, Morgan Stanley earnings, IBM's bad day and more in Morning Squawk - CNBC World Markets