US-Iran Clash Reignites Dollar Strength and Rate Hike Bets

매크로/금리 | Mon Jul 13 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 4 sources

Renewed Middle East geopolitical risk drove energy prices higher and strengthened expectations of additional Fed tightening.

Analysis

[Gold] declined as US-Iran conflict resumed ^[1]

• Mutual US-Iran airstrikes occurred over the weekend
• Upward pressure on energy prices
• Expanded expectations of rate hikes to counter inflation

[US Dollar] strengthened on US economic resilience and geopolitical risk ^[4]

• Solid US economic indicators
• Rising Middle East tensions
• Inflows of safe-haven demand

[US Treasury Bonds] weakened on inflation concerns ^[2][4]

• Dollar strength accompanied by bond weakness
• High energy prices stoking inflation
• Concerns over additional Fed tightening

[Federal Reserve] held first Humphrey-Hawkins congressional testimony under new Chair Kevin Walsh ^[3]

• Expected to emphasize price stability
• Likely to avoid concrete policy guidance
• Anticipated questions on inflation
• balance sheet
• and policy task force

Sources

• [1] Gold Declines as Renewed US-Iran Strikes Raise Rate-Hike Bets - Bloomberg Markets
• [2] Traders Grapple With World That’s Good for Dollar, Bad for Bonds - Bloomberg Markets
• [3] Markets Watch Walsh's First Testimony - Bloomberg Markets
• [4] Strong dollar, weak bond market: Investors favor greenback as Fed tightening bets grow - Seeking Alpha Market News