Iran Tensions Reignite, Strait of Hormuz Instability Drives Oil and Fuel Price Surge

에너지/원자재 | Sun Jul 12 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 12 sources

Renewed US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz instability shook global energy markets, prompting China to order expanded refinery operations.

Analysis

[Strait of Hormuz] faced delayed reopening and uncertainty in Gulf energy flow recovery ^[1][2]

• Delayed normalization of vessel traffic
• Need to repair damage to refineries
• LNG
• and port facilities
• US-Iran negotiations focused on securing freedom of navigation
• Ceasefire destabilized by President Trump's escalated remarks

[Brent Crude] rebounded as Iran conflict reignited ^[10][12]

• Surged 63% after Iran crisis began on February 28
• Hit 2026 peak of $118.35 on March 30
• Fell on ceasefire before rising again
• Around $76 per barrel as of July 9

[US Fuel Market] saw gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices surge despite falling crude ^[3]

• Heavier burden on peak-season travelers
• Unusual decoupling between crude and refined product prices
• Threat to Trump's inflation-curbing pledge
• Political burden ahead of midterm elections

[China Refining Industry] was ordered to maintain high refinery utilization in preparation for prolonged Iran crisis ^[4][6][11]

• Directive to major refiners to sustain production
• Aimed at protecting domestic consumers
• Response to threats against Persian Gulf crude shipments
• Power load also hit record high

[Eni] warned of worsening short-term energy crisis ^[5]

• Declining global oil inventories
• Intensifying competition to secure supply
• CEO Claudio Descalzi's interview with Il Sole 24 Ore

[IEA] called Europe's slow electrification a major mistake ^[7]

• Statement by Executive Director Fatih Birol
• Delayed energy independence since 2022 gas crisis
• Emphasized need for EU to accelerate electrification

[US Grain Market] rallied on soybeans and corn following favorable USDA report ^[8][9]

• USDA released data exceeding expectations
• Soybeans rose on Friday
• Corn saw strong rebound
• Agricultural markets turned bullish

Sources

• [1] Hormuz Reopening Faces Costly Hurdles - Bloomberg Markets
• [2] Hormuz Dispute Clouds US Iran Diplomacy - Bloomberg Markets
• [3] Fuel Prices Are Slamming Consumers Even as Crude Crisis Fades - Bloomberg Markets
• [4] China Tells Refiners to Keep Fuel Output High as Iran War Drags - Bloomberg Markets
• [5] Eni’s Descalzi Says Energy Crisis May Worsen in Short Term: Sole - Bloomberg Markets
• [6] China Power Load Hits Early Record as Data, EV Demand Rises - Bloomberg Markets
• [7] Europe’s slow electrification is a ‘major mistake’, warns IEA chief - Financial Times
• [8] Soybeans Posting Friday Rally as USDA Shows Better Than Expected Data - Yahoo Finance
• [9] Corn Rallying Out of Bull Friendly USDA Report - Yahoo Finance
• [10] Oil’s Calm Is Over as Middle East Risks Return - Yahoo Finance
• [11] China urges refiners to keep production high as Iran tensions resurface: Bloomberg - Seeking Alpha Market News
• [12] Oil Is Below $76. So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65,000? - The Motley Fool