US-China Economies Send Mixed Signals Amid Fed Policy Uncertainty

매크로/금리 | Sat Jul 11 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 5 sources

Debate over the Fed's rate path intensified, while China's CPI slowed and PPI hit a four-year high, and the divergence between the US stock market and economy widened.

Analysis

[Federal Reserve] revealed disagreement among members over rate outlook in June FOMC minutes ^[3]

• Deep divisions among members regarding rate outlook confirmed

[RBC Wealth Management] warned of potential reversal of 2025 cuts or extended hold ^[2]

• View of senior portfolio strategist Thomas Garretson
• Futures market pricing in one hike in 2026
• Chair Warsh's emphasis on commitment to returning to 2% inflation target

[Fed Chair Kevin Warsh] formed five task forces to comprehensively review central bank operations ^[4]

• Marc Andreessen
• Greg Mankiw
• and Doug McMillon among participants
• AI task force members share Warsh's optimism
• Xbox CEO Asha Sharma also included on the list

[China National Bureau of Statistics] reported June CPI rose 1.0% below expectations while PPI hit 4-year high at 4.1% ^[1]

• CPI slowed from 1.2% in May to 1.0% in June
• PPI marked the highest increase since July 2022
• Food prices fell 1.6% year-on-year
• Impact from AI computing demand and Middle East conflict-driven commodity price increases

[Chinese economy] entrenched dual-speed growth with strong exports and manufacturing versus weak consumption and real estate ^[1]

• View of Neo Wang at Evercore ISI
• Persistent weak consumer sentiment due to prolonged real estate downturn
• Late-July Politburo meeting expected to be the next catalyst for stimulus
• Analysis by Gabriel Wildau at Teneo

[US economy and stock market] widened divergence with AI-led stock rally amid real growth slowdown ^[5]

• Real GDP decelerating from 3.3% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2026
• Tech stocks account for 35-50% of market capitalization
• Labor force participation rate near 50-year low
• Consumer sentiment slightly rebounded in June after hitting all-time low in May

Sources

• [1] China consumer price growth weakens in June while producer inflation rises to near 4-year high - CNBC Markets
• [2] Prepare for the Fed to undo rate cuts that stabilized the economy, expert cautions - MarketWatch Top Stories
• [3] Fed minutes expose deep divide over interest-rate outlook - Yahoo Finance
• [4] Chip rally, Fed task forces, Delta earnings and more in Morning Squawk - CNBC World Markets
• [5] Why the stock market and economy may seem out of sync - CNBC World Markets