Global Rates to Stay Elevated on Trump-Era Geopolitical Risks

매크로/금리 | Mon Jul 06 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 4 sources

Iran war fallout is expected to keep global rates elevated for years, with U.S. Treasury auctions and Fed minutes in focus, alongside S&P 500 valuation warnings.

Analysis

[Trump Administration] projected prolonged upward pressure on global rates from Iran war fallout ^[1]

• Monetary policy repercussions persist despite end of war with Iran
• Long-term impact on global central bank policy stance
• Geopolitical risks reset the rate path

[U.S. Treasury Market] faced 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions and June FOMC minutes in focus ^[2]

• Long-dated bond demand put to the test
• 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions scheduled
• Events concentrated in a week light on economic data

[Developed-Market Policymakers] raised concerns over neglecting growth fundamentals amid expanding industrial policy intervention ^[3]

• Need to liberalize land
• labor
• energy
• and capital raised
• Policy shift toward industrial interventionism
• Risk of neglecting simple growth drivers

[S&P 500] sent historical overvaluation warning signals with a P/E of 32 ^[4]

• Current P/E of 32
• the highest since just before the 2020 pandemic
• Historically
• levels above 30 occurred only before the dot-com bubble and financial crisis
• Dollar-cost averaging strategy recommended for long-term investors

Sources

• [1] Trump’s War Means Higher Global Interest Rates for Years to Come - Bloomberg Markets
• [2] Bond Traders Watch for Treasury Auctions, June Fed Minutes - Bloomberg Markets
• [3] Rich nations must unleash land, labour, energy and capital - Financial Times
• [4] Historic Warning Signal Suggests the Stock Market Is Headed Somewhere Investors Do Not Want to Go - The Motley Fool