Global Macro Shifts: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Major Economies Respond

매크로/금리 | Sun Jul 05 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 4 sources

Weak June US jobs data fueled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while Germany and Brazil accelerated their economic response measures.

Analysis

[US Labor Market] showed weaker-than-expected June employment data supporting bond market strength ^[1]

Employment report weaker than expected
Accompanied by signals of slowing inflation
Created favorable environment for bond market

[Federal Reserve] saw expanding expectations for a rate cut this year, boosting equities ^[4]

June nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57
000
Below market expectations
Wall Street closed higher even in holiday-shortened week
Increased betting on rate cut within the year

[Germany] sought a second chance to revive economic growth ^[2]

Economic indicators reflecting cumulative impact of Iran war to be released
Attempts to restore vitality of Europe's largest economy
Government pursuing new growth-stimulating policies

[Brazil] emphasized that credit support measures do not impact monetary policy ^[3]

Introduction of credit support program by Lula administration
Finance Minister Dario Durigan's remarks in G1 interview
Dismissed concerns over undermining monetary policy independence

Sources