Big Tech and SaaS Stocks Diverge Amid AI Capex Concerns

테크주 | Sat Jul 04 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 17 sources

Meta and Microsoft faced scrutiny over massive AI capex plans while Apple closed the market cap gap with Nvidia, and analysts revised ratings across SaaS and cybersecurity names.

Analysis

[Meta Platforms] announced $135 billion AI capex plan for 2026 ^[13]

• Capex guidance of $125–145 billion
• Roughly double the $72 billion from the prior year
• AI ad optimization as the core objective
• Shares down 15% in 2026
• 29% off highs

[Microsoft] recorded worst monthly decline in 25 years ^[15][2][10]

• Over $570 billion in market cap wiped out in June
• Stock retreated to 2023 levels
• 2026 capex projected at $190 billion
• up 63% YoY
• Azure and cloud revenue growth sustained at 39%

[Apple] narrowed market cap gap with Nvidia to about 4% ^[14]

• Market cap around $4.5 trillion vs. Nvidia's $4.7 trillion
• Surged 5% Thursday on reports of expanded iPhone lineup
• Fiscal Q3 earnings scheduled for July 30
• Revenue guidance of 14–17% growth
• PER around 37x
• a premium to Nvidia's 30x

[SpaceX] unveiled semiconductor venture Terafab ^[12]

• Post-IPO market cap surpasses $2 trillion
• Initial investment of $55 billion
• up to $119 billion total
• Partnership with Intel on 14A process technology
• Targeting chips for space-based AI data centers
• Starlink accounts for 61% of 2025 revenue

[Amazon] unveiled Alexa+ and in-house silicon strategy ^[17]

• Panos Panay leading AI gadget roadmap
• Acquired wearable startup Bee
• End-to-end in-house chip design for core devices
• Pursuing voice-centric computing without apps or screens

[SaaS and cybersecurity stocks] received widespread analyst rating revisions ^{[3][4][5][6][7][8][9][11][16]}

• ServiceNow (NOW) upgraded to Buy by Guggenheim
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) downgraded to Neutral by Arete
• Snowflake (SNOW) named BofA's Q3 top pick
• Veeva (VEEV) Buy rating maintained by Stifel
• SAP named Jefferies' European top pick
• Atlassian (TEAM) Market Perform maintained by Citizens
• Fortinet (FTNT) highlighted as cybersecurity leader

[US AI regulatory policy] Trump administration opposed centralized AI regulation ^[1][17]

• Comments from outgoing tech advisor Sriram Krishnan
• Maintained deregulatory stance despite growing AI backlash
• Lifted export controls on Anthropic Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

Sources

• [1] Trump will oppose heavy US AI regulation, says outgoing tech adviser - Financial Times
• [2] Haleon Just Struck a Five-Year Deal With Microsoft. Here Is What It Means for Haleon Stock. - Yahoo Finance
• [3] Is Intuit (INTU) One of the Best SaaS Stocks to Buy According to Reddit? - Yahoo Finance
• [4] ServiceNow (NOW) Rating Upgraded by Guggenheim to Buy from Neutral - Yahoo Finance
• [5] Citizens Maintains Market Perform Rating on Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) - Yahoo Finance
• [6] Arete Downgrades CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) Rating to Neutral From Buy - Yahoo Finance
• [7] BofA Names Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Among Top U.S. Stock Ideas For Q3 - Yahoo Finance
• [8] Stifel Reiterates Buy Rating on Veeva Systems (VEEV) - Yahoo Finance
• [9] SAP SE (SAP) Among Jefferies’ Top European Software Stock Picks - Yahoo Finance
• [10] Kyndryl Expands Sovereignty Solutioning with Microsoft (MSFT) - Yahoo Finance
• [11] Fortinet: A Strong Investment in a Competitive Cybersecurity Market - The Motley Fool
• [12] SpaceX's Next Big Business Isn't Rockets. It's Computer Chips. - The Motley Fool
• [13] Meta Platforms Will Spend $135 Billion on AI in 2026. There Might Only Be 1 Reason Why. - The Motley Fool
• [14] Apple Is About 4% Away From Overtaking Nvidia as the World's Most Valuable Company. Could It Happen This Month? - The Motley Fool
• [15] Microsoft Had Its Worst Month in More Than 25 Years. Should Investors Buy the Crash? - The Motley Fool
• [16] The hunt for AI's next winners defined the stock market's holiday-shortened week - CNBC World Markets
• [17] The Tech Download: Amazon’s devices chief Panos Panay on tech giant's AI gadget push - CNBC World Markets