June US Jobs Shock: Labor Force Participation Hits 50-Year Low

매크로/금리 | Fri Jul 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 7 sources

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June, missing expectations, while labor force participation fell to 61.5%—the lowest in 50 years excluding the COVID period.

Analysis

[US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)] reported June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 ^[2][6][7]

• Well below the Dow Jones consensus of 115
• 000
• May figures revised down by 43
• 000 to 129
• 000
• April also revised down by 31
• 000 to 148
• 000
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year

[Labor Force Participation Rate] fell to 61.5%, hitting the lowest level in 50 years excluding COVID ^[1][2]

• Down 0.3 percentage points month-over-month
• lowest since March 2021
• Labor force shrank by 720
• 000 in June alone
• Those not in the labor force surged by 832
• 000
• Prime-age (25-54) participation rate also plunged 0.6 percentage points to 83.3%

[Household Survey] confirmed a plunge of 507,000 in employment ^[1][2]

• Employment-to-population ratio fell to 59%
• lowest since October 2021
• Labor force down more than 1 million on an annual basis
• Employed persons dropped by 1.06 million
• unemployed rose by 40
• 000
• Broader unemployment rate (U-6) fell 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%

[Financial Markets] rallied on receding expectations of a September rate hike ^[2][3][6]

• Dow hit a record high despite weak jobs data
• 2-year Treasury yield fell 3.5bp to 4.13%
• Principal's Seema Shah assessed easing tightening pressure on the Fed
• J.P. Morgan strategist said "American workers are not getting wage increases"

[Fed Chair Kevin Warsh] called inflation "too high" while maintaining strategic ambiguity ^[2][5][7]

• Emphasized at the Sintra ECB Forum that prices are "too high"
• Reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target
• Inflation continues to overshoot the target due to the Iran war and tariffs
• Described the labor market as "steady"

[President Donald Trump] called the Fed "hostile" and pressured Warsh ^[4]

• Characterized the Fed as "hostile" in an interview
• Told Chair Warsh he "has to do what he has to do"
• Continued to confirm plans to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Sources

• [1] Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation rate falls to lowest in 50 years, outside of Covid era - CNBC Markets
• [2] U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2% - CNBC Markets
• [3] Dow scores fresh record despite tepid jobs report. Why the rest of 2026 is about workers. - MarketWatch Top Stories
• [4] Trump blasts ‘hostile’ Fed and says Warsh ‘has to do what he has to do’ on interest rates - MarketWatch Top Stories
• [5] Warsh Using Strategic Ambiguity: Diczok - Bloomberg Markets
• [6] US economy undershoots forecasts with 57,000 jobs added in June - Financial Times
• [7] The jobs report, Meta's rally, Trump Accounts and more in Morning Squawk - CNBC World Markets