June US Employment Shows Signs of Slowdown Amid Fed Rate Concerns

매크로/금리 | Thu Jul 02 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 5 sources

ADP private payrolls missed expectations while World Cup boost was anticipated and dollar strength pressured emerging market currencies.

Analysis

[ADP] reported June private payrolls rose by 98,000 ^[2]

Missed forecast of 110
000
Slowed from 122
000 in May
Education and healthcare accounted for half at 48
000
Only natural resources and mining declined by 5
000
Job changers' wage growth at 6.6%

[Goldman Sachs] forecast June nonfarm payrolls at 140,000 citing World Cup effect ^[1]

Estimated World Cup contributed 40
000 to payroll growth
Analysis based on Homebase data
Concentrated in leisure and hospitality
professional services
and transportation
Hospitality hiring up 9.5%
Dow Jones consensus at 115
000

[Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)] warned of AI infrastructure demand-driven inflation and hinted at rate hikes ^[5]

Described AI infrastructure demand as insatiable
Assessed inflation over the past 5 years as too high
Mentioned the Fed may need to raise rates
Spoke at the ECB conference in Sintra

[Emerging Market Currencies] erased all 2026 gains as dollar strengthened ^[4]

EM currency index fell Wednesday
Speculation of additional US rate hikes emerged
Dollar entered renewed strength phase
Year-to-date gains wiped out

[Deputy Survey] reported rising job satisfaction among US shift workers ^[3]

Positive response rate rose to 78.9% year-over-year
Dissatisfaction responses at 5.9%
a four-year low
Hospitality sector highest at 82.98%
Healthcare lowest at 72.89%
Contrasts with consumer sentiment indicators

Sources