First Attack After Strait of Hormuz Reopens; Ceasefire Shakes Shipping Recovery

글로벌 시장 | Sun Jun 28 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 6 sources

A cargo ship was struck just one week after the US-Iran peace agreement, threatening the shipping recovery.

Analysis

[US and Iran] signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ^[2][5]

• 60-day ceasefire alongside negotiations for a permanent peace agreement
• Oil sanctions waiver in exchange for curbing Iran's nuclear program
• Official signing ceremony held in Geneva

[Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic] recovered to 125 vessel transits in the week after the ceasefire ^[1][2]

• 125 transits during June 15-21 week
• the highest since the war began
• 62 vessels passed through on June 24 alone
• Still only 53% of the level seen on the same day last year

[Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)] mandated use of northern route and warned against transit through unauthorized routes ^[3][1]

• Only Iran-designated routes permitted for transit
• Mandatory coordination through communication channels with Iranian authorities
• Designated unauthorized route transits as dangerous and prohibited

[Ever Lovely] was struck off the coast of Oman in a suspected IRGC attack ^[1][2]

• Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship
• First cargo ship attack since the ceasefire
• Struck on the starboard side by a projectile

[International Maritime Organization (IMO)] temporarily suspended its vessel evacuation plan for the Strait of Hormuz ^[2]

• Operation to support evacuation of hundreds of stranded vessels and thousands of crew in the Gulf
• Need to reconfirm safety guarantees following the Ever Lovely strike
• Parallel operation of northern Iranian route and southern Omani route

[Global Economy and Commodity Markets] faced entrenched inflationary pressures from the Hormuz incident ^[4][6]

• World Bank lowered 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%
• Global inflation projected at 4%
• with fertilizer prices feared to surge up to 38%
• Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $80 by end-2026 and $75 in 2027
• NYK CEO expects transits at half of prewar levels as mines limit safe routes

Sources

• [1] Shipping rebounds in Strait of Hormuz one week after U.S.-Iran deal – but fragile confidence threatens recovery - CNBC Markets
• [2] UN agency pauses Hormuz ship evacuation plan after first vessel attack under peace deal - CNBC Markets
• [3] Iran warns ships it's 'unacceptable and dangerous' to transit the Strait of Hormuz without their approval - CNBC Markets
• [4] Hormuz relief may not ease the economic toll that's already 'baked in,' analysts warn - CNBC Markets
• [5] Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade for first time in months as shipowners eye Hormuz in 'wary disbelief' - CNBC Markets
• [6] Mines will hold back Strait of Hormuz shipping for months, CEO warns - Financial Times