Iran War Energy Shock Reignites Global Inflation; Fed and ECB Turn Hawkish

매크로/금리 | Sun Jun 28 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | 12 sources

New Fed Chair Warsh pivots hawkish, the ECB raises rates, and US inflation hits a three-year high.

Analysis

[U.S. Federal Reserve] signaled a hawkish stance at new Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC ^[4][12]

• Held the benchmark rate at 3.5–3.75%
• Dot plot median implied a 25bp hike within the year
• Statement condensed to 130 characters
• explicitly citing 'price stability achievement'
• Reorganized Fed operations with five new task forces

[PCE Price Index] core PCE hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023 ^[1]

• Headline PCE at 4.1% YoY
• highest since April 2023
• Monthly PCE rose 0.4%
• A 4% rise in energy-related prices was the key driver
• Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.7%
• beating expectations

[U.S. CPI and PPI] May consumer prices jumped 4.2% and wholesale prices surged 6.5% ^[7][9]

• CPI at 4.2% YoY
• highest since April 2023
• Energy prices soared 23.5% YoY
• PPI rose 1.1% MoM
• above the 0.7% expectation
• Wholesale gasoline prices jumped 23.4%

[European Central Bank] raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% in its first hike since 2023 ^[8][10][11]

• 25bp hike
• in line with market expectations
• Raised 2026 eurozone inflation forecast to 3%
• Lowered growth forecast to 0.8%
• Board member Schnabel warned of additional upside risks

[Bank of England] held its benchmark rate at 3.75%, with two hawkish members voting for a hike ^[3][5][6]

• 7 of 9 members voted to hold
• 2 dissented for a 25bp hike
• May UK CPI at 2.8%
• below market expectations
• UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April amid Iran war fallout
• Summer energy price cap set to rise 13%

[U.S. Manufacturing] S&P released June PMI showing factory job cuts at financial-crisis and COVID-era levels ^[2]

• Manufacturing PMI at 55.7
• slightly above May
• Factory job cuts near the largest since 2009 outside the pandemic
• Inventory buildup drove production gains
• Q2 growth expected around 1%

Sources

• [1] Core inflation rate hit 3.4% in May, highest since October 2023, Fed’s preferred gauge shows - CNBC Markets
• [2] Factory job cuts in June neared financial crisis and Covid levels, S&P says - CNBC Markets
• [3] Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% amid Iran war peace prospects - CNBC Markets
• [4] Here are the five big takeaways from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman - CNBC Markets
• [5] UK inflation holds steady at 2.8% in May - CNBC Markets
• [6] UK economy shrank 0.1% in April as Iran conflict weighed on growth - CNBC Markets
• [7] Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May, more than expected, on surge in energy - CNBC Markets
• [8] ECB hikes interest rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps up energy costs - CNBC Markets
• [9] Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, highest in three years - CNBC Markets
• [10] Energy prices take center stage as the ECB prepares to decide on rates - CNBC Markets
• [11] ECB’s Schnabel Sees Upside Inflation Risks Despite Peace Deal - Bloomberg Markets
• [12] New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Says There's a Huge Problem With Financial Markets Right Now. His Solution Could Be Bad News For Stock Investors - The Motley Fool